[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132203
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-132300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER TN VALLEY / NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132203Z - 132300Z

SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE E OF ONGOING SEVERE WATCH 298 AS THE
AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY AND NWRN AL SLOWLY RECOVERS IN
WAKE OF THE EARLIER MCS.  A WW IS POSSIBLE.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM CNTRL AL
INTO E-CNTRL MS AND THEN EXTENDING NWD TOWARDS THE TN/MS/AL BORDER
REGION.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF CU OVER NWRN
AL AND WRN MIDDLE TN OWING TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
EARLIER MCS.  THE UPPER LOW OVER MO IS SHIFTING EWD FOCUSING LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TOWARDS THE REGION.

INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AN IMPROVING TROPOSPHERIC WIND
PROFILE /SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ MAY
ACT TO IMPROVE STRONG-SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.  DESPITE
THESE POSITIVES...SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CINH /TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ SHOULD FAVOR A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ELEVATED AND ROOTED ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THEREFORE...DMGG WIND
POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN AS STORMS MOVE EWD FROM WW 298 INTO THE WRN
PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH TIME FOR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN ROBUST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 05/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   33378827 35168809 36298803 37088791 37368747 37198682
            36398651 35108663 33708694 33388719 33098759 33098795
            33378827


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