[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121951
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...SRN IND...FAR SERN
IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121951Z - 122145Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...SRN IND...AND
FAR SERN IL.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE DAY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT MCV
MOVING NEWD...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN TN. AMPLE INSOLATION AMIDST A
MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MCV. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV
FROM SRN IND INTO WRN TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD IN
TANDEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE MCV. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25 KT
WILL YIELD MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. MODEST SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS -- I.E. 15F TO
20F -- COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER RAPID REFRESH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG IN MANY AREAS.
THIS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
A WW.

..COHEN.. 05/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35478854 35918904 36858904 37468858 38308723 38708549
            37598448 36158544 35488644 35308748 35478854


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