[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011712
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-011845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...SWRN/CNTRL AR...FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 011712Z - 011845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 15 E JBR TO 30 W PBF...AS A STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
TO 25 NW TYR...AND AS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO CNTRL TX. A MODEST
LLJ /SSWLY FLOW AROUND 30 KT PER FORT WORTH AND SHREVEPORT VWP DATA/
ATOP THE NWD-SLOPED FRONTAL SFC IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO
REGENERATE IN NERN SECTIONS OF WW 261...AND FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL AR
AND FAR WRN TN.

WHILE THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE WANED ELSEWHERE TEMPORARILY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE NEAR
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR.
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SHREVEPORT AREA. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OWING TO
INSOLATION...AS WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. THUS...WW 261 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TORNADO WATCH
WITHIN AN HOUR.

..COHEN.. 05/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   34929091 34509116 34129147 33469152 32709215 32109316
            31759445 31669604 32209683 32389782 32859778 33419719
            33709618 34159456 34729310 35319261 35969106 36129008
            35738933 35219001 34929091

WWWW
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