[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 240121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240121
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-240145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TN...WRN NC...NRN GA AND FAR NERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240121Z - 240145Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SERN TN...FAR SWRN NC...FAR
NRN GA AND FAR NERN AL.  HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT DURATION OF THREAT /UNTIL 03Z/ GIVEN ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
MAY PRECLUDE THIS WATCH ISSUANCE.

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 50-65 KT AND
EFFECTIVE SRH 200-350 M2 PER S2/ ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  MEANWHILE...EARLY EVENING SURFACE/OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES INDICATED THE NRN EXTENT OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS /MID-UPPER 50S
F/ EXTENDED INTO ERN TN AND SWRN NC BENEATH A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 100 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET
OVER TN.  THESE THERMODYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTING A DESTABILIZATION FROM
W-E ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 56 AND INTO NRN GA.  ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE JET EXIT REGION AND ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE/HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE TN VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION...ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING/INCREASE IN SBCINH SUGGESTS
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY ONLY BE VALID UNTIL 03Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE THAT GREAT TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 03/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34788599 35698463 36008364 35518262 34638346 34418543
            34518608 34788599



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