[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281844
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-282015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...CNTRL/SRN VA...ERN TN...MUCH OF NC...FAR
NWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281844Z - 282015Z

THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS AND A SUBTLE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT AXIS HAVE PROMPTED
THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR THE SERN
WV AND WRN VA BORDER...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
SOUTH INTO ERN TN...WRN NC...AND FAR NWRN SC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...OWING
TO SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AMIDST
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THIS
INSTABILITY...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL CUMULUS
CONVERGENCE LINES SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES COULD EVOLVE
FROM THESE CONVERGENCE LINES IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED INSOLATION BY
20Z...AS AFFIRMED IN RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. AN INLAND
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD ALSO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DISCUSSION AREA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH DCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 900 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...STRONG DOWNWARD
CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY COULD FAVOR INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF
DMGG WIND GUSTS. SHOULD ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF LOCAL UPSCALE
GROWTH AND DMGG WIND THREAT BECOME EVIDENT IN RESPONSE TO MERGING
COLD POOLS...THEN THE NEED FOR A SVR TSTM WATCH COULD INCREASE.

..COHEN.. 06/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...
GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   34918125 34818204 34908271 35068311 35218331 35628358
            36118329 36808247 37618136 38068077 38477999 38737915
            38507772 37697655 36607615 35977618 34997672 34367808
            34897995 34918125



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