[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 280857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280857
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-281030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280857Z - 281030Z

IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A WW MAY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SLOWLY EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ALREADY APPEARS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...BUT STORMS
ON THE WESTERN FLANK ARE STILL MAINTAINING STRENGTH...AIDED BY
INFLOW OF A LITTLE BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR.  NEW DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALSO APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR WHICH HAS ADVECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WEST NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IS FAIRLY WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF
20 KTS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ARE CHARACTERIZED BY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 2 INCHES/ AND SIZABLE CAPE /ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J PER KG/.  THIS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH MAY PROMOTE
STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS...AND CONTINUED UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH.  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN TRAINING CELLS MAY ULTIMATELY BECOME THE PRIMARY
THREATS...BUT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW
DOWNBURSTS...AND PEAK WINDS ALONG THE GUST FRONT OF THE
CONGLOMERATING COLD POOL COULD AT LEAST APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA.

..KERR.. 06/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36519444 36929326 36879165 36769063 36488952 36368888
            36158819 35828763 35578720 34948762 34638922 34879100
            35379290 35699400 36039446 36519444



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