[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271630
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MO...TN...KY...IL...IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271630Z - 271800Z

STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE MO
BOOTHEEL EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE NOON HOUR CDT.

SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND
LIGHTNING STRIKE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO LAST HOUR OR SO.
THESE STORMS ARE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS ACROSS MO/IL.
WHILE LIFT ACROSS THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL WAS LIKELY AIDING ONGOING
STORMS...EXPECT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION TO
AID ADDITIONAL ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SURFACE WARM
SECTOR...FROM WRN TO CNTRL/MIDDLE PORTIONS OF KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A 400-1000 J PER KG
INCREASE IN MLCAPE OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS AND THIS IS LIKELY NOW
BEING REALIZED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION GIVEN THE RECENTLY OBSERVED
INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY/LIGHTNING.

ALONG WITH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...BELT OF
40-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...PREFERENTIALLY DIRECTED INTO THE N-S
BANDS OF STORMS...ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NOW EXCEEDING 1000 J PER
KG...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 06/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38078779 38198619 37728435 35918505 35498759 35528997
            36289026 38078779



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