[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260621
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL/SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...553...

VALID 260621Z - 260745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
550...553...CONTINUES.

A NEW WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED BY 07Z.

ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN
INTENSITY...BUT ACTIVITY...IN GENERAL...APPEARS TO REMAIN STRONG AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE.  THE FORWARD PROPAGATING PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH 08-10Z.  MEANWHILE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PROBABLY WILL PERSIST ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD POOL/OR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU/ROCKIES...BUT THIS SEEMS
LIKELY TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA.  VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHT MAY BE THE MOST
PROMINENT THREATS...ASSOCIATED WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LARGE CAPE /PW UP TO 2
INCHES...CAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/.  HOWEVER...HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A
30-40 KT 850 MB JET MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCALIZED...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...DOWNBURSTS.

..KERR.. 06/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   38939063 38468859 38998756 38918658 38378551 37508459
            36708506 36408588 36178718 36308879 36898971 37759050
            38939063


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