[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251617
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-251815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MO...EXTREME NERN AR...NWRN TN...WRN
KY...SWRN INDIANA...SRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251617Z - 251815Z

ORGANIZED SVR WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER DISCUSSION AREA AND DOWNSHEAR.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

OVERNIGHT/MORNING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NERN THROUGH
CENTRAL MO...WITH MCV TO ITS N OVER SRN IA AND NARROW BAND OF WEAKER
TSTMS SWD ACROSS OZARKS OF SRN MO AND NWRN AR.  MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROOTED IN ELEVATED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS BASED
ON MORNING RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS...SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ.  15Z SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT FROM NEAR TBN SEWD ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL TO
EXTREME NERN MS/NWRN AL REGION...DRIFTING NEWD.  SECONDARY
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM NERN MO SEWD OVER SRN IL TO
EXTREME WRN KY -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM BKN BAND OF WAA-WING
CONVECTION JUST TO ITS NE.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS...GRADUAL
TRANSITION WAS EVIDENT FROM TEMPS/DEW POINTS 80S/70S F TO LOW
70S/LOW 60S F...WITH THETAE LESSENING AND PARCELS GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE ELEVATED NEWD.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF RELATIVE
CLEARING AND ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SRN/ERN MO AND SWRN IL
THAT WILL COMBINE WITH WAA/MOIST ADVECTION NEAR SRN FRONTAL ZONE TO
DESTABILIZE THIS REGION.  CINH IS WEAKENING ACCORDINGLY...WITH
MLCAPE FCST TO RISE TO 2500-3500 K/JG RANGE IN SRN WARM-FRONTAL ZONE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  NWLY DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS WITH EFFECTIVE
MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT ALSO ARE EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE...ONGOING PRESSURE PERTURBATION REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR LEADING EDGE OF COLD
POOL.  ISALLOBARIC MESOANALYSES OVER PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN
PRONOUNCED RISE-FALL-RISE WAVE BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF CENTRAL-NRN MO
CONVECTION...WITH 2-HOUR DEFICITS AS LOW AS -6 MB BEHIND RISES OF
4-5 MB.  PRIMARY WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR FROM NRN FRONTAL ZONE TO JUST
S OF MAIN WARM FRONT...WHILE ACTIVITY FARTHER N POSES POTENTIAL FOR
MRGL HAIL/GUSTS.  WHILE FORWARD-PROPAGATION SHOULD BE
DOMINANT...BACKBUILDING ALSO IS POSSIBLE AND ACCOUNTS FOR
UNCERTAINTY FAN IN POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36399042 37279165 38109275 38959175 39919145 39838932
            39588723 38218750 36678839 35688963 36399042



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net