[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241705
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MD...VA...NC...DC...EXTREME NRN PORTIONS
SC/GA...SERN TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241705Z - 241930Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR TSTMS OVER PIEDMONT/COASTAL
PLAIN/TIDEWATER REGIONS OF VA SWWD ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CAROLINAS.  MAIN THREAT WITH SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS.
MOSTLY MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.  WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-AFTERNOON OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD NEAR
HGR...CHO...AVL THEN BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WWD OVER SRN TN.
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SFC DIABATIC HEATING IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF
FRONT...AND BEHIND EWD-MOVING CIRRUS PLUME EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY
FROM HAMPTON ROADS REGION SWWD TOWARD CAE.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SUFFICIENT SFC MOISTURE NEAR ESSENTIALLY COMMINGLED
THERMAL/MOIST AXES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER AND REMOVAL OF MLCINH ACROSS THIS REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...ACTIVITY ALREADY HAS FORMED INVOF FRONT OVER ERN TN
AND WILL MOVE INTO NC.  SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH
SWD EXTENT...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM AROUND 40
KT OVER MD TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF SC AND NRN GA.  LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK SPEEDS AND VEERED
SFC WINDS IN MOST LOCALES.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
MULTICELLULAR...WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTERED MODES POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...
GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   35398620 35538353 36058177 37057948 39177766 39657727
            39197623 38437577 37777546 37087594 36937600 36757606
            36627614 36397632 35837669 35377723 34877902 34868349
            35398620


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