[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201646
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-201745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WRN WV/VA...ERN TN...PORTIONS OF NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201646Z - 201745Z

THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF DMGG WINDS MAY INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN VA...ERN TN...AND
PORTIONS OF NC.

TWO BOWING SEGMENTS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SRN OH/ERN
KY...GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SEWD AMIDST MODEST WNWLY FLOW...WITH A
MAINTENANCE OF 6.5 TO 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION...THE
BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVER RAIN COOLED LOW
LEVELS...AND LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AT THIS TIME. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CORES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A
SUFFICIENT WIND THREAT MAY NOT BE SUPPORTED IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE
UNTIL SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR DOWNSTREAM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY ACROSS WRN VA...ERN TN...AND PORTIONS OF NC.
HOWEVER...TRAINING CELLS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

..HURLBUT.. 06/20/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38988359 38228245 36898134 35858112 35578153 36048267
            37288360 38438430 38988359



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