[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190714
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN MO/NERN AR...SRN IL...WRN
KY...NWRN TN AND FAR SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

VALID 190714Z - 190815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508
CONTINUES.

AN INCREASING TREND EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR FROM SRN-SERN
MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...FAR SWRN IND...AND POSSIBLY OVER NERN AR INTO
NWRN TN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WATCH TO BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM
OF WW 508 IS 90 PERCENT.

CURRENT MESOSCALE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT FOR A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO...POTENTIAL
DERECHO...FORMING AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO /THE COUNTIES
OF CRAWFORD TO SHANNON/.  TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED
THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED /EWD AT 45+ KT/.

AN EXTENSIVE RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FAST MOVING
LINE IS SUPPORTING COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM...THERE
REMAINS A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO SWRN
IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN.  A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING IN TO SRN MO
IS EXPECTED TO VEER OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN THE EWD
MOVEMENT OF THIS MCS.  SGF WSR-88D INDICATED AN 80-85 KT WLY REAR
INFLOW JET /LOCATED AT 8 KFT AGL OVER PHELPS COUNTY MO/ ATTENDANT TO
THE DEVELOPING BOW.  GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...A NEW WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 09Z FOR SERN MO...SRN IL INTO WRN KY AND
POSSIBLY FAR SWRN IND.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   38448657 37588619 35968704 35668865 36049087 36349212
            36539317 36739345 37979328 38429205 38878972 38448657



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net