[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152253
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478...

VALID 152253Z - 160030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 478 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL REMAINING A CONCERN. GIVEN THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
OF WW 478...PORTIONS /MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL/ OF THE WATCH MAY
NEED LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS AND/OR A REPLACEMENT SEVERE TSTM WATCH
PRIOR TO 00Z.

WITHIN WW 478...EASTERNMOST STORMS NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS HAVE CONSOLIDATED/EVOLVED IN A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH AID FROM A SURFACE COLD POOL.
DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN/UPSTATE CAROLINAS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
PROBABLE WITH TIME AS THIS QLCS ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND THUS NO ADDITIONAL WATCH
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED EAST OF WW 478.

FARTHER WEST...FROM THE SURFACE COLD POOL WESTWARD INTO A STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS /2000-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE/MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MS/AL AS OF 2245Z. ESPECIALLY WITH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN-MOST
STORMS...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR/RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIKELY BEYOND 00Z.

..GUYER.. 06/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36188701 36178622 35748522 35818428 35468325 35518223
            35328200 34328285 33468487 34358578 34478924 35338924
            35608791 36188701



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