[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111748
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-111915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NE AL...NRN GA...WRN
SC...SRN NC...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111748Z - 111915Z

INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  SOME MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE...BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE A WW.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND WEAKENING INHIBITION AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH
INSOLATION.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AND
BEYOND PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE
ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.  IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...FURTHER STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
WHILE CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEM TO OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION ARE VERY WEAK.  AS A
RESULT...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER WITH A BROADER
SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS LOW.

..KERR.. 06/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36268723 36698636 37198521 37418342 38038250 37808173
            37608070 37587953 37097911 35737969 34318103 33458303
            33558555 34458713 36268723



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