[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072204
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-080000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA...ERN TN...WRN NC...FAR
WRN SC...FAR NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 072204Z - 080000Z

A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL ATTENDANT TO A DECAYING
LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS OVER SRN OHIO VALLEY REGION
EXTENDS FROM WRN VA INTO ERN KY. THE 21Z SFC OBSERVED SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED WAKE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
COLD POOL...WITH PRESSURE RISES UP TO 5 MB IN 2 HOURS NOTED ACROSS
SRN WV. WHILE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE OUTFLOW HAS
LARGELY OUTRUN MAINLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...THE INFLOW
OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINTAINING
POCKETS OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD POOL
SLIDES SWD AND INTERACTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE THREAT FOR A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THE COLD POOL IS
LEAST SHALLOW...GIVEN PRECONVECTIVE DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING...MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS PER
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG VWP. WITH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
TO FARTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT COULD ENSUE. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OR FORCING...CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY BE DISORGANIZED AND SHOULD EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING
AFTER 02Z IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..COHEN.. 06/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

LAT...LON   35098485 36038427 37688371 38128339 38288289 38008231
            37798172 37788102 37578043 36568024 35298109 34468236
            34288363 34498441 35098485



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