[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051547
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051547Z - 051715Z

OVERNIGHT MCS THAT EVOLVED ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION HAS
PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED ACROSS IL/WRN
IND...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  EVEN
SO THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS REMNANT MCS HAS MAINTAINED SOME STRONGER
INTENSITY ALONG A NARROW LINE SEGMENT AS IT CROSSES THE OH RIVER
INTO NRN KY.  GIVEN THAT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS WELL UNDER
WAY AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE REBOUNDED TO VALUES NOW ON THE
ORDER OF 8 C/KM...IT/S LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON TAKE ROOT
INTO MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RESERVOIR THAT EXISTS
ACROSS WRN KY INTO MIDDLE TN AND POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A MORE WELL
DEVELOPED MCS ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  FOR THIS
REASON A NEW WW MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT.

..DARROW.. 06/05/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38138611 36328422 35378681 36918891 38138611



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