[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071646
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-071815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NW GA...TN...FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071646Z - 071815Z

A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG SFC HEATING. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG FROM NCNTRL MS NEWD INTO ECNTRL
TN. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHERE 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MCD
AREA. AS THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS AS THE STORMS PULSE UP AND DOWN IN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..BROYLES.. 07/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
JAN...

LAT...LON   33278709 33958596 34308482 35138385 35828425 36348494
            36748577 36838619 36838672 36498728 36158774 35158849
            34828921 34398986 33579032 32968965 32688902 32558832
            33278709



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