[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041752
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-041845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HALF OF AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041752Z - 041845Z

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS INCREASING TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM WRN AR INTO SWRN TN. RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS AS
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN A BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED
BY RICH THETA-E AIR. A VERY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT /1.8-2 IN PER
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WET
DOWNBURSTS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ALSO BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST CORES...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DMGG WINDS. TSTMS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE PULSE-TYPE TO WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS /GIVEN
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW/...WITH SLOW PROPAGATION ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS GIVEN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS.. 07/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34168838 33768932 33559212 33709368 34239421 34689352
            35239171 35479006 35818905 35948861 35588815 34868811
            34428818 34168838



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