[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041610
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY...ERN TN...WRN NC...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041610Z - 041745Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SE KY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG A
TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSES SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS IS UNCAPPED AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.50 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F/ SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS. THE INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO WRN AND CNTRL VA
SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THERE AS STORMS
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

..BROYLES.. 07/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35778218 36008127 36218039 36667746 37937665 38657816
            37768191 37408317 37368430 36758510 36088510 35648433
            35658307 35778218


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