[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 100207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100207 COR
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-100645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST SUN JAN 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR THROUGH NRN MS...NRN AL...SRN TN AND EXTREME
NWRN GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 100207Z - 100645Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN NEXT TO LAST SENTENCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

SNOW RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING...INITIALLY OVER
ERN AR...SWRN TN AND NRN MS...THEN SPREADING NEWD INTO NRN AL...SRN
TN AND EXTREME NWRN GA WITH TIME. RATES LOCALLY FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH
PER HOUR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET...ESPECIALLY
FORM NRN MS THROUGH NRN AL.

LARGE CP AIRMASS IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SERN STATES WITH WET BULB
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN DEEP
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW FROM NRN MS...NRN AL INTO SRN TN THIS
EVENING. LARGE EXPANSE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES DEVELOPING NEWD
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE POLAR
AIRMASS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT VORT MAX OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY. ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD
THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN MS...NRN AL AND SRN TN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
VORT MAX AND ITS ATTENDANT 60 KT SLY LLJ. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
HEAVIER SNOW INITIALLY EXISTS FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN.
SNOW RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FARTHER NE INTO NRN AL...S-CNTRL
AND SERN TN LATER THIS EVENING AS AN INITIALLY DRY LAYER BELOW 3 KM
MOISTENS THROUGH THE PROCESS OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 0 AND -5C WHICH WILL AUGMENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH
THROUGH AGGREGATION AS ZONE OF STRONGER ASCENT SHIFTS NEWD. SNOWFALL
MAY MIX WITH SLEET OVER A PORTION OF NRN MS AND NRN AL WHERE WARM
ADVECTION ALONG LLJ MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE
SUBFREEZING LAYER.

..DIAL.. 01/10/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35268648 35058546 34638531 34228617 34099011 34589125
            35269087 35358870 35268648


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