[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281336
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-281400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE...AND WRN/CENTRAL
MD INCLUDING THE D.C. METRO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 30...

VALID 281336Z - 281400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 30 CONTINUES.

A NEW WATCH...LIKELY A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF
WW 30 FROM SWRN TO NRN VA INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MD INCLUDING THE
WASHINGTON D.C. METRO...AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE.

AT 1315Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAST MOVING QLCS
EXTENDING FROM SWRN PA THROUGH WRN WV TO ERN KY.  THE NRN WV PORTION
OF THIS LINE WAS TRACKING EWD AT 55-60 KT WHILE FARTHER SW INTO SWRN
WV THE LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT 45 KT.  SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND E OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS COMBINED WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
MORNING TO THE EAST OF WW 30.  ALTHOUGH CURRENT MUCAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL INTO WRN/NRN VA /100-400 J PER KG/ PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE QLCS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER MOMENTUM
AIR TO THE SURFACE.

MODIFIED 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUGGESTS LOWER-MIDDLE 70S SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.  HOWEVER...AS
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD...THE CAP EVIDENT ON THIS SOUNDING MAY
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 02/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON   39727923 39687674 38857707 37407849 36597913 36548195
            36578330 38048061 38027999 39727923



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