[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 250648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250648
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-250715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KY...SRN WV...WRN PARTS OF VA...AND NERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250648Z - 250715Z

DIMINISHING TREND IN OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG NRN EXTENT OF TN
VALLEY QLCS SUGGESTS A NEW WW EWD ACROSS FAR ERN KY...SRN WV... NERN
TN AND PARTS OF WRN VA WOULD NOT BE NEEDED.  HOWEVER...GIVEN FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD ATTENDANT TO A LEAD IMPULSE OVER ERN KY AND
STRONG WIND FIELDS...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ AS A LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
TSTMS SPREADS ENEWD AT 50-60 KT.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS RATHER STABLE...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED
DIMINISHING TREND AS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE KY/NERN TN ACTIVITY
ADVANCES QUICKLY ENEWD.  THE DRASTIC REDUCTION IN LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION SINCE 05-06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE ACTIVITY OUTRUNNING THE
BETTER INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 02/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   36028105 35698298 35938416 37858305 38488249 38798112
            38047985 36028105



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