[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141750
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-141845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN WV...SWRN/WRN VA...WRN CAROLINAS AND NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141750Z - 141845Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SRN APPALACHIANS.  A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS FROM WRN/CENTRAL VA SWWD THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS TO
PART OF NERN GA.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NERN OH WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH WRN
WV...ERN KY...ERN TN TO CENTRAL AL.  AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF THE
FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATING CONVECTION/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER NERN GA/WRN SC.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT /SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS/.

TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE COLD FRONT CRESTS AND MOVES
IN LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN VA TO NERN GA.  FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 08/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...
MRX...JKL...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   38527821 38057760 36457810 35097950 34378041 33348231
            33408359 33648521 34078597 34728548 35498433 36798289
            37268227 38468102 38688029 38807953 38767902 38527821


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