[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121746
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC...MUCH OF NC...FAR ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121746Z - 122015Z

AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT OWING TO THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1013-MB LOW OVER FAR ERN
SC JUST EAST OF CHARLESTON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY...A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD/WSWWD FROM THE LOW INTO PARTS OF SRN GA.
ALSO...THE AXIS OF A WWD-MOVING INVERTED TROUGH...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MAXIMUM IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
PER GPS DATA/...EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE LOW INTO ERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION IS
RESULTING IN 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20 TO 30 KT...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS
HAS BEEN OBSERVED PER AREA RADAR IMAGERY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS WHERE MERGING COLD POOLS SUPPORT LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL NC AND ERN GA...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND STEEPEST
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OWING TO LIMITED CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VALUES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

..COHEN.. 08/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...
FFC...

LAT...LON   34967703 34197787 33567899 32708000 31838085 31788167
            32808261 34408407 35528372 36468223 36418148 36088079
            35967983 36107904 36217810 35877710 34967703



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