[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281738
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-281915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN IL...WRN/NRN KY...SRN IND...SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281738Z - 281915Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
MO...SRN IL...WRN/NRN KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SVR WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z AND SFCOA GUIDANCE INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE
QUICKLY WARMING THROUGH THE 60S ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS...WHICH IS AIDING IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS AS A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY ROTATE AROUND A CLOSED LOW
OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX
DEPICTED IN LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND RECENTLY SAMPLED BY DVN
VWP...WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD STRONG DEEP LAYER W-NWLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THOUGH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S/ WILL ONLY YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J
PER KG/...THE FAST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN STORM ORGANIZATION
/MAINLY QUICK MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/ WHICH WILL POSE AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..GARNER.. 04/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
SGF...

LAT...LON   37079153 36528977 36728698 37868448 39078366 39968446
            39738802 40069157 39179227 37079153


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