[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271708
TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-271815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271708Z - 271815Z

AIRMASS IS TRYING TO RECOVER OVER WRN TN IN WAKE OF MCS THIS
MORNING.  VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE IN PLACE MAY WARRANT TORNADO
WATCH CONSIDERATION...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION
CAN OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 994 LOW IN N-CNTRL AR WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ATTENDANT TO THE MCS NOW ONGOING OVER SRN MIDDLE
TN/NRN AL...SLOWLY LIFTING NWD AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS FAR NRN
MS.  AN AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS FROM MEM N AND NEWD
TOWARDS MKL AND PAH ARE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DEEP UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION RESPONSE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE W.  COMPLICATING
FACTOR HINGES ON SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE MCS DUE IN PART TO LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT OR AT LEAST DELAY SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
AREA.  DESPITE THESE CAVEATS...A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
SAMPLED BY KNQA VAD /AOA 35 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR/ WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.  PRIOR TO A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING...IN
THE NEAR-TERM IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS CORES.

..SMITH.. 04/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35109030 35948960 36538824 36858729 36738697 36138694
            35588730 35038824 35109030



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