[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270059
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-270300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN
AL...MIDDLE TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270059Z - 270300Z

WW 215 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD ACROSS REMAINDER NRN MS AND WRN TN.
ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA...PERHAPS INCLUDING AREAS
CURRENTLY IN WW 215 THAT WILL STILL CONTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE SFC AIR WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S
F IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM NRN MS NEWD OVER MID TN AND SWD ACROSS NRN
AL.  HOWEVER...STG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION IS
FCST...ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC.  LLJ IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN TO
50-65 KT RANGE ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF LOWER DELTA REGION INTO MID TN
THROUGH 06Z.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED JAN/SHV RAOBS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CURRENTLY STRONG MLCINH OVER NRN MS WILL
WEAKEN...WHILE MLCAPE INCREASES REGION-WIDE TO 2000-2500 J/KG VALUES
NOW EVIDENT OVER WRN TN AND SRN MS.  AS MID-UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS
ACROSS OK...MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THIS
AREA ALSO...WITH 55-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES BECOMING
COMMON.  LLJ ALSO WILL ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH
REACHING 300-500 J/KG RANGE.  NET RESULT SHOULD BE EWD  SHIFT/SPREAD
OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL REGIMES NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND SWRN
TN/NWRN MS.  DEVELOPMENT OF SVR BOW ECHOES WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT ALSO MAY OCCUR...GIVEN STRENGTH AND ANGLE OF DEEP-LAYER
WIND WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE FORCING...AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
CONVECTION ALREADY EVIDENT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   31399192 33049209 33689067 34738886 35538813 36558700
            36238615 35188651 33818768 32678981 31399192


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