[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252134
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...ERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN
IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA...EXTREME WRN KY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252134Z - 252230Z

ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY ACROSS MS VALLEY REGION E AND NE OF WW 205.

SVR TSTMS OVER NERN PORTIONS AR IN WW 205 MAY BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
MOVE NEWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION.  MAIN
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES NRN EXTENT OF FAVORABLE/SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW...GIVEN ROBUST STRENGTH OF COLD POOL OVER MO OZARKS AND
LIMITED TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION TO ITS E.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
SRN EDGE OF THAT COLD POOL FROM NEAR FLP NEWD ACROSS CARTER COUNTY
MO THEN NWD TOWARD SWRN FRINGES STL AREA...E OF WHICH 3-4 MB/2-HOUR
FALLS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR REGION.  THIS TENDENCY IS
CONSISTENT WITH SFC LOW SHIFT/DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO REGION...WHILE
RELATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS AND
ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
POTENTIAL.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUITABLE ALSO...WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 45-55 KT.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...N OF
WHICH HODOGRAPHS ARE FURTHER ENLARGED...WAS ANALYZED FROM WRN KY MCS
SWWD ACROSS MEM AREA THEN NWWD OVER NERN AR.  HOWEVER...SFC DIABATIC
HEATING IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO ITS N SUCH THAT 500-1500 MLCAPE
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY BEFORE SUNSET.
WAA WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON   35319163 37059086 38158966 38228882 38158778 37468767
            35638842 34088901 33879075 34299180 35319163


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net