[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251815
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-251915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200...

VALID 251815Z - 251915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200
CONTINUES.

SURFACE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MS RIVER AT 1755Z CONTINUES TO WARM...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN MS WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80 F. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE CURRENT MCS TRACK.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SYSTEM MAINTENANCE AND
INTENSIFICATION...EVIDENT BY COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY. AS THE MCS MOVES DOWNSTREAM AT 30-40 KT...A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
IN ADDITION...30+ KT LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MESOVORTICES/ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE QLCS.

IF THE MCS MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT NEARS THE ERN EDGE OF WW
200...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..GARNER.. 04/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35339120 35408826 33948827 33889120 35339120



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