[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231804
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN AR/SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231804Z - 231930Z

FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF FAR SERN MO/NERN AR AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN DURING EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR
WEATHER POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW.

AT 1745Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SWD OUT OF SERN MO AND
INTO NERN AR...AND WERE MOVING E AT ROUGHLY 40 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ADJACENT TO LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NRN
AR NEWD ACROSS FAR SRN IL AND SRN IND. PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS AIDED IN BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S F...AND IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS LEADING TO INCREASING
MLCAPE VALUES /NEAR 1000 J PER KG/ DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN TN/KY.
FURTHERMORE...THE MO/AR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP LAYER OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW...FAVORING SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF BOW ECHO
DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AT WHICH POINT A WW
MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..GARNER.. 04/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37798706 37048671 36238708 35658824 35508981 35749077
            36909013 37848840 37798706


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