[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151729
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-151830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO / SWRN IL / FAR WRN KY / WRN TN / NERN AR /
NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151729Z - 151830Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT HR OR SO ACROSS ERN MO / SWRN
IL / WRN KY AS STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FIRST ACROSS THE MO/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE AREA.  FARTHER S STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N TO S AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS NERN AR
/ WRN TN.  THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH BY
19-20Z.  IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR THE MS VALLEY WHERE A TONGUE OF MID-UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS
IS ADVECTING INTO THE ST LOUIS AREA.  MORE VIGOROUS BUILDUP IN THE
CU FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED IN THIS REGION...WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
ARE LEADING TO A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS NEAR AND N OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN ERN MO.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND LEAD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS A PV ANOMALY NOTED ON WV
IMAGERY OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD
TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITHIN A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH TIME WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES
AS THE ACTIVITY ORGANIZES AND MATURES.  RECENT CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODEL DATA SHOW STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOPING FIRST OVER ERN MO AND
MOVE NNE INTO SWRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FARTHER S
OVER SERN MO/NERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HRS.

..SMITH.. 04/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   34479026 37759085 39209200 39899221 40209186 40449075
            40148979 39298892 37418845 34988815 34378856 34168981
            34479026



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net