[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041525
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-041730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...

VALID 041525Z - 041730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF
WATCH 89...FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING BOW STRUCTURES ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER SRN AR...WITH CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
WRN TN. THE TN ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS
LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION.
VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM
SECTOR ARE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SRN AR/NRN LA ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LARGELY LINEAR SUGGESTING
DAMAGING WINDS BUT MAY EXHIBIT AREAS OF ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. EXISTING CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND ANY FURTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAY HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE AT PRODUCING TORNADOES BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

FARTHER N WRN/CNTRL KY...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DUE TO
ADVECTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING EFFECTIVE PARCEL LAYER/SRH OVER WRN TN/KY
AS MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SPREAD NWD. A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO
CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.

..JEWELL.. 04/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35808804 36608706 36628613 36288568 35578610 33678707
            33068779 32758912 32449059 32769205 33249193 33819063
            34398966 35808804


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