[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201716
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-201815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN INTO NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201716Z - 201815Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
SSW-NNE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND FROM GWO TO NE OF UOX
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING IS OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF A SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT.  IN ADDITION TO PERSISTENT
TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CONFLUENCE ZONE /WHICH
ACTUALLY EXTENDS AT LEAST TO NE OF MKL/...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARER TO
THE MS RIVER ALONG A DEEPER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING NEWD THROUGH AR.

EXPECT AIR MASS TO CONTINUE MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING FROM THE
S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
CURRENT MEMPHIS TN AND COLUMBUS MS VWPS INDICATE THAT A CORRIDOR OF
LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RESIDES ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE.  AS SUCH...THE SETUP MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34189049 35508990 36288918 36438846 36308787 35248790
            34058844 33878913 33828987 34189049


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