[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 162149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162148
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-162245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TN MS LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 162148Z - 162245Z

MCS MOVING INTO ERN AR AT ABOUT 30KT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-LIVED
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 30-40KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK PER
WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE DATA. AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.

GIVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND CONTINUED
MESO/SYNOPTIC SCALE REGIME SUPPORTING ASCENT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT THE MCS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INTEGRITY FOR ANOTHER WATCH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF AR AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TN.

PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

..CARBIN.. 05/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35849114 36189101 36529073 36398919 35358897 34368925
            33628967 33059039 32859100 32699157 32679204 32579240
            32879311 33539185 34059113 35849114



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