[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141918
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL THROUGH SERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...172...

VALID 141918Z - 142045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
170...172...CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REMAINDER OF WW 170 AND 172 NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IS LIKELY.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN AND CNTRL KY SWWD INTO NWRN TN AND
CNTRL AR. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
SERN KY SWWD THROUGH THE NRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN NEAR NASHVILLE INTO
SWRN TN NORTH OF MEMPHIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. VWP DATA
INDICATE 40 KT SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SWD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
IS ALSO ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER WINDS AND SUGGESTS THE
SPEED OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAST.
THUS...STORMS WILL TRAIN NEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR.

..DIAL.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37078680 38458340 37658254 36808372 35838659 35198978
            35249060 35819037 37078680



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