[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132241
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-140015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MO AR IL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168...

VALID 132241Z - 140015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168
CONTINUES.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW DEVELOPING TOWARD SERN MO HAS SHOWN A MARKED
WEAKENING TREND LAST HOUR DESPITE MOVING INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS COMPLEX
EVOLVED OUT OF STORM COMPLEX NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLIER TODAY AND
HAS TRACKED NEWD AT AN AVERAGE SPEED AROUND 45KT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT INITIATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO
MASS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FORCING HAS NOW TRANSITIONED FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...THE
COMPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE RAPID DECAY.

IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS MAY PERSIST IN SOME FORM WITH THE
DECAYING DISTURBANCE...OR IF NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT SPREADING SEWD FROM THE MID MS RIVER TOWARD THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL FORCING...ANOTHER WATCH LATER THIS EVENING CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REINVIGORATED CONVECTION MAY BE WHERE THE
MESOSCALE LIFT WITH THE MCS/COMMA HEAD IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FRONTAL
INTERSECTION...NEAR AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STL AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA...A
NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 05/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35659239 36759217 37239221 37619221 37809197 37969175
            39189077 39798973 39428777 37138837 36089015 35489142
            35429200 35659239



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