[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021137
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-ERN TN...ERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY...NWRN AL...NRN MS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...132...

VALID 021137Z - 021330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131...132...CONTINUES.

SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WWS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ELONGATED/QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
BOW/LEWP FEATURES POSING DAMAGING WIND RISK.  WW MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LOCALLY INTO SOME TN COUNTIES IN BETWEEN THESE WWS...NW
CSV...AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.

LESS-DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE INDICATES REMAINING POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED TO MODE CONDITIONAL/SHORT-LIVED NATURE
ASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH QLCS/BOOKEND CIRCULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINING ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE ON SPORADIC BASIS E OF WW 132...MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF MLCAPE TO NEAR
ZERO FROM W-E ACROSS ERN KY AND NERN TN...AND MORE ELEVATED/MRGL
NATURE TO BUOYANCY ABOVE INFLOW LAYER.  WHILE SFC DIURNAL HEATING
WILL INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER APPALACHIANS IN A FEW
HOURS...SOMEWHAT DRIER/LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS ACTS AS
COUNTERBALANCING INFLUENCE FOR GENERATING DEEP SBCAPE.
THEREFORE..OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY MOVES E
OF WW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN.

SVR POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST LONGER OVER MS...NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN
WITHIN NERN FRINGES OF RELATIVELY RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
PW AOA 1.5 INCH AND MLCAPE ESTIMATED AT 500-1000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT OVER THIS REGION...BUT
GRADUALLY..AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-MORNING.  PRIMARY TN MCS IS LINKING WITH INITIALLY SEPARATE BAND
OF CONVECTION OVER NERN MS...APPARENTLY ALONG SAME GEN CONVERGENCE
ZONE...WHILE TRAILING BAND STILL POSES SOME SVR THREAT OVER NWRN MS.


FARTHER SW ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND NERN LA...REF FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 461.

..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33569107 36628869 37208691 37708533 38578357 38018297
            36988382 36358459 35128618 34558681 34658710 34298709
            34308762 33898764 33908790 33518792 33538829 33268833
            33288906 33138915 33108930 33318936 33298969 33228973
            33349029 33259039 33329051 33279054 33309078 33539080
            33569107


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