[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012243
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-012345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AR/NRN LA/NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 012243Z - 012345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

CONVECTION/UPDRAFTS ARE BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT FROM WEST CENTRAL
AR /HOT SPRING TO GARLAND COUNTIES AR/ ENEWD TO CROSS COUNTY AR IN
THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WSW-ENE THROUGH THIS
REGION.  REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THIS CORRIDOR.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THIS 40 MILE WIDE ZONE
EXTENDING FROM 30 WSW HOT TO 25 NW MEM IS A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR
SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL
WITH ANY STORM THAT TRACKS ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE ENELY
WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
/LIT WSR-88D VWP SFC-1 KM SHEAR 30 KT/.  AN ENEWD STORM MOTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PROVIDE A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE
UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS TO INGEST STREAM-WISE VORTICITY...INCREASING THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

AT 22Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING NEWD
ACROSS AR WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN INHIBITING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE RICH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ IS LIKELY
BEGINNING TO SENSE THE EFFECTS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING NEWD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  STRENGTHENING
SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND SSWLY LLJ WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIO
GRANDE TROUGH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34529348 34839333 35099266 35459151 35788992 34869048
            33749129 32899173 32259238 32349370 32569482 33699418
            34299365 34529348



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