[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111036
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-111230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN MS...WRN/NRN AL...MIDDLE TN.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28...

VALID 111036Z - 111230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 28 CONTINUES.

WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...AS IT WEAKENS AND
EXITS WW FROM N-S ACROSS ERN MS.  ONE SPOT OF TSTM WIND DAMAGE WAS
REPORTED AT 911Z IN SCOTT COUNTY MS.  ALTHOUGH OVERALL
INSTABILITY/BUOYANCY AND SVR POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS TN/MS/AL...THOSE PORTIONS OF WW
ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONTINUED FOR LINGERING SVR
THREAT.  PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING REMAINDER WW WILL BE
ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND
CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SMALL BOW CIRCULATIONS OR
SUPERCELLS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY --
REINFORCED IN SOME AREAS BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AL
-- ALONG LINE FROM NEAR MGR-BIJ-TOI...THEN WNWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL AL
TO NEAR MEI...AND BEING OVERTAKEN FROM W-E BY PRIMARY BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER ERN MS.  BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE IN SFC THERMAL
FIELDS...AMIDST PRECIP PLUME EXTENDING NWD FROM BAND OF TSTMS OVER
GULF....HOWEVER IT STILL IS DEFINED VIA THETA ANALYSES.  AIR MASS NE
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS VERY STG MLCINH WITH WEAK MID-UPPER LAPSE
RATES...AND PLUME OF ELEVATED WAA ACCOMPANYING VERY BROAD/30-40 KT
LLJ.  THIS REGIME SUPPORTS ONLY ABOUT 100-300 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE.
BUOYANCY IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT S OF BOUNDARY TOWARD COAST
EITHER...DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF GULF PRECIP AREA.
THEREFORE...VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY --
PRIMARILY ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC -- APPEARS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS
S-CENTRAL/SERN MS INVOF MIE-PIB CORRIDOR.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE GIVEN PERSISTENT LEWP/BOW FEATURE OR DISCRETE STORM...WITH
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE...AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-300 J/KG
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ACCESSIBLE BY UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONSTRAINED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY LACK OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 03/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   31819004 32748901 33588833 35318762 36318712 35978660
            34468668 32408766 31348870 31288943 31819004



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