[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110721
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN TN...CENTRAL/SRN IL...EXTREME ERN/NERN
AR...CENTRAL AND NRN MS...EXTREME WRN KY...EXTREME SERN MO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...27...

VALID 110721Z - 110815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25...27...CONTINUES.

NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 8Z EXPIRATION OF WWS
25/27...WITH PRIMARY BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS NEARING SERN EDGE OF WW
27.

PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS WAS EVIDENT AT 7Z FROM ERN FRINGES OF STL
METRO AREA IN IL...SWD ACROSS SRN IL NEAR MDH...SSWWD ACROSS MEM
AREA...TO SHARKEY COUNTY MS.  NEWER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED TO
ITS E AND WAS EVIDENT FROM FAYETTE COUNTY TN TO JEFFERSON COUNTY MS
AT 7Z.  NEWER CONVECTIVE BAND IS APPARENT IN AREA OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND SHOULD MERGE WITH MIDDLE PORTION OF
OLDER BAND OVER WRN TN DURING NEXT HOUR.  COMBINED CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FAR WRN KY...WRN TN...AND CENTRAL-ERN MS.  SVR
POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING FROM S-N AS NRN PORTION OF ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IL AND
WRN KY.  SVR POTENTIAL ALSO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT
ACROSS WRN TN AND NRN MS FOR SIMILAR REASONS...HOWEVER THIS WILL
TAKE LONGER AS NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AT
AND JUST ABOVE SFC SUPPLIES ENHANCED THETAE TO INFLOW OF THAT
PORTION OF CONVECTIVE BAND.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHARP
STRENGTHENING OF MLCINH/SBCINH EWD ACROSS NRN/ERN MS AND WRN
TN...CORRESPONDING TO WRN EDGE OF LESS-MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR
MASS.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE SFC WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY EWD INTO THAT ZONE FAR ENOUGH THAT
ANOTHER WW WILL BE REQUIRED.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MOST
FAVORABLE FROM CENTRAL MS NWD...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES 40-50 KT
COMMON...DIMINISHING SWD ACROSS LOWER DELTA REGION AS MID/UPPER LOW
LIFTS NWD ACROSS MKC REGION AND AWAY FROM GULF COAST.

..EDWARDS.. 03/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...

LAT...LON   31759088 32999076 35278986 36529015 37678976 40059060
            39788945 38328873 36148824 34748822 32698837 31518907
            31568997 31759088



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