[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110054
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / NRN MS / WRN TN / SERN MO / WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 110054Z - 110230Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E/NE OF TORNADO WATCH
22 BY AS EARLY AS 02Z.  A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CNTRL
AR WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM /A SUPERCELL/ LOCATED OVER SALINE
COUNTY AR AS OF 0040Z.  00Z LIT SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH
WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG DESPITE DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FARTHER E OVER THE MS
DELTA REGION INDICATE SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH ERN AR/WRN TN...ALLOWING
ONGOING...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST AFTER DARK.

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO INTENSIFYING LLJ MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION E OF ONGOING ACTIVITY PRIOR
TO 02-03Z.  GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT LOWERING OF LCL HEIGHTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION
TO SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 03/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34359122 35739134 36629099 37119054 37138960 36778882
            35998867 34688926 34298968 34099050 34359122



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