[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192301 COR
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE OK...SE KS...NRN AR...AND SRN MO INTO
SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352...

VALID 192301Z - 200030Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352
CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO SURGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT
AROUND 35 KTS.  HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
PRODUCED IT HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN WEAKER SHEAR/FLOW ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION.  ENOUGH CONVERGENCE PERSISTS ALONG THE GUST FRONT...IN THE
PRESENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...TO
SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW LINE.  THIS COULD
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
MAY NOW BE LIMITED TO MORE LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME
HAIL...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES FURTHER BY 01/02Z.

MEANWHILE...MORE VIGOROUS NEW...ONGOING...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE SLOWING WESTERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY SOON
MERGE WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOSTON
MOUNTAINS...AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A FURTHER EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 3000+ J/KG
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREATS
BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 06/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   39028960 39638930 39348814 38858765 37858792 36868857
            35689039 35469411 35849533 36659571 37299497 37189372
            37199274 37349096 38058988 39028960



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