[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311833
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311833Z - 311900Z

WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS WRN KY INTO MIDDLE TN.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAD MOVED SEWD INTO FAR SERN IL...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SWD INTO SRN IL TO SRN MO...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN KY TO MIDDLE TN AND INTO GA.  DESPITE
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG.  REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATED A STRONGER STORM HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NE OF BNA.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED ADDITIONAL CU/TCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TN NWWD INTO WRN KY ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS
SEWD WITH APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY.  40 KT NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/30-40 KT NWLY DEEP SHEAR WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP WWD THROUGH SRN MO TO NRN AR
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY
INCREASE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUST POTENTIAL...BUT AN OVERALL
ORGANIZED THREAT STILL APPEARS LOW WITH WWD EXTENT.

..PETERS.. 07/31/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34938600 35168724 35588831 35909010 36159269 36659385
            37059368 37189067 37478861 37868774 38078632 37378513
            36628479 35038438 34938600



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