[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192300
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...

VALID 192300Z - 200030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
CONTINUES.

A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

AN ONGOING VIGOROUS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME /AT OR
BELOW 20 KTS/. SYSTEM HAS ALSO SHIFTED AWAY FROM SUPPORTING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE ARE NOT
OPTIMIZING SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS...AND IS MOVING
AROUND 35 KTS...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF IT...INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... STILL CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 2000-3000+
J/KG AND WEAK INHIBITION.  SO THE STORM CLUSTER MAY BE SLOW TO
WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AND IT COULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
OF EASTERN TENNESSEE BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE...DURING THE
02-04Z TIME FRAME.  PEAK WINDS ALONG THE GUST FRONT SEEM LIKELY TO
REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SPORADIC
DAMAGE...MAINLY TO TREES/POWER LINES.

..KERR.. 07/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   38388497 38148421 37508368 36918333 36308356 35928431
            35728560 35858658 36108701 36388710 36948634 37718594
            38388497



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