[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 300207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300206
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / FAR NRN GA / UPSTATE SC / WRN NC AND PARTS
OF THE NC PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 300206Z - 300600Z

INCREASING FROZEN PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT VICINITY.  SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH 1 INCH/HR THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE
THEREAFTER...POTENTIALLY NEARING 2 INCHES/HR IN LOCALIZED AREAS.  A
PLETHORA OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT
ICING ACCUMULATIONS WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 0.10 INCH/HR
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 06-09Z.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL OPEN AND
BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  AS THIS OCCURS A
LOW LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL
AL...AND THIS WILL AID IN DRAWING GREATER MOISTURE NEWD /I.E. PRECIP
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER COMPOSITE 00Z BMX-FFC RAOB/
OVER A LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOME E OF THE SMOKIES.  AS THIS
OCCURS...THE COUPLING OF AN UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER SPEED
MAXIMA WILL FOCUS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN INTENSIFYING
SUPTROPICAL JET OVER THE NRN GULF COAST STATES WITH THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A MID-ATLANTIC/NERN US UPPER JET...OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL FAVOR VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA THIS EVENING HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING ACROSS NRN AL/SRN MIDDLE TN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WHEREAS WET BULB COOLING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DECREASING
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS NC/SC.  00Z GSO RAOB AND AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS E OF THE MTNS INITIALLY SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER.
HOWEVER...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA FOCUSES ON THE REGION...THE H85-H7
LAYER WILL WARM AOA 0 DEG C FAVORING A TRANSITION FROM PRIMARILY
SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN GENERALLY S OF I-40 /INCLUDING THE
SMOKIES/ BY 09Z.  THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL RATES FURTHER N OVER NWRN NC AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND UPSLOPE LEAD TO 1-2 INCH/HR RATES.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIQUID EQUIVALENT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH 09Z WITH 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH/HR POSSIBLE.

..SMITH.. 01/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   36387948 35917936 35078008 34658131 34678301 34718485
            34968511 35288502 35928456 36368382 36518165 36407961
            36387948



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