[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 240041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240040
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-240215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA TO MO BOOTHEEL/WESTERN
TN/NORTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240040Z - 240215Z

PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN AR/NORTHEAST LA INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY AND A
POSSIBLE WATCH.

A NNE-SSW ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE/ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/NORTH CENTRAL LA
AS OF 0030Z. WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
REGIME...PRIMARY HINDRANCE FOR A MORE CERTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
THE LIMITED DEGREE/QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE NARROW
WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING QLCS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF
55+ F ARE CONFINED TO LA/FAR SOUTHERN AR AND THE PRE-QLCS 00Z LITTLE
ROCK OBSERVED RAOB WAS INDICATIVE OF VIRTUALLY NIL SBCAPE. BUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS CONTINUE
TO APPRECIABLY STRENGTHEN...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFIES
ACROSS MO/NORTHERN AR...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EMBEDDED SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE MESO-VORTICIES COULD BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON AS
CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS MATURE...WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL EVEN AMIDST RATHER WEAK NEAR SURFACE BUOYANCY.

..GUYER.. 01/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   36209069 36138945 34868941 32509093 32379236 33689195
            36209069



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