[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 212315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212314
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-220045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY/NORTHEAST AL/FAR
NORTHERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7...

VALID 212314Z - 220045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 7 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. SEVERE HAIL/ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO RISK DOES EXIST MAINLY ACROSS MIDDLE/EAST CENTRAL TN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

RELATIVELY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...WHILE
MULTIPLE ARCING BANDS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION /INCLUDING SOME
SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KY/FAR NORTHEAST AL/FAR NORTHERN GA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS
MIDDLE/EAST CENTRAL TN ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE/VICINITY OF A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY. AMBIENT VERTICAL
VORTICITY IN PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT LOW...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE MAINLY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE 50F...IS FAVORABLE FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK MAINLY ACROSS MIDDLE/EAST CENTRAL TN AND
PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST AL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED /WITH SEVERE
HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS/ INTO EASTERN
TN/SOUTHEAST KY/FAR NORTHERN GA...WHERE A MORE CONVECTIVELY HOSTILE
BOUNDARY LAYER /SUB 50F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ RESIDES TO THE EAST OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE AXIS.

..GUYER.. 01/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   36898720 37328622 37218452 35048472 34548533 34558672
            35888744 36898720

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