[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020609
NCZ000-TNZ000-021015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN NC

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 020609Z - 021015Z

FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.05 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NC STARTING IN THE 07-08Z PERIOD AND LASTING
THROUGH 12Z.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP S AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT OVERNIGHT.  MODEST
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE SERN U.S. FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED FARTHER
SEWD OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN/PIEDMONT WHERE UVV/S ARE
FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST.  RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE DAMMED E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
FROM THE TEENS EARLIER TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS OF 06Z.  WITH A
LACK OF A STOUT SURFACE RIDGE /IMPLIED BY LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS PER
SURFACE OBS/ REINFORCING WET BULB COOLING AS WARM AIR TRIES TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION...WET BULB TEMPS DEPICTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 32 DEG F
OVERNIGHT.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
ENDING GENERALLY IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION...WITH RATES UP TO 0.05
INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..SMITH.. 02/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35678322 35458351 35328363 35178361 35068331 35358267
            35558227 35658191 35768181 35948196 36018226 35928267
            35678322



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