[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311704
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN KY...NERN AR...AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311704Z - 311800Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 18Z FOR PARTS OF NERN
AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...AND SWRN KY.

PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE... AND NWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION EWD
WITH TIME INTO WRN TN...SERN MO AND SRN IL. A BROKEN SQUALL LINE
INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUES MAINLY FROM CNTRL
AR NWD THROUGH ERN MO AND WRN IL ALONG EWD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT.
THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM NRN AR INTO SERN MO AND SRN THROUGH CNTRL IL. SRN PORTION
OF LINE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT
THROUGH SRN AR INTO NRN LA. SO SRN LIMIT OF INITIAL THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF MEMPHIS AREA. HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET PIVOTS
NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION COULD RESULT IN SWD EROSION OF THE CAP WITH TIME AND ANOTHER
WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FARTHER S LATER TODAY.

..DIAL.. 12/31/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON   35799114 38888968 38438787 35798941 35799114


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net