[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151814
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151814Z - 152015Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL MS FROM
NEAR GLH TO GWO TO CBM. THIS BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS N
CNTRL AL INTO MIDDLE TN SOUTH OF BNA BUT HAS BECOME FAIRLY DIFFUSE.
LATEST VIS SAT SHOWED CU BECOMING MORE AGITATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
IN MS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY FAIRLY SPARSE ACROSS MIDDLE TN...WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S IN MS TO THE LOW 90S NEWD
INTO TN. DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S HAVE RESULTED IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE DAY WITH VWP/S FROM MS TO TN
INDICATING AROUND 15-20 KT 0-3 KM SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
LESS THAN 20 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORM CLUSTERS AND
WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2-2.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET
MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33549100 34439013 35588816 36268689 36538590 36328578
            35858577 34968617 32088839 31718933 32179083 33549100


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